First, fine-tune prelude, Shanghai Lo high platform diving
Early last week, relying on the 5th Shanghai Lo continued moving average pre-holiday rally, thanks to funds to promote, in the first line break after the previous high of 4572, and further pull up the momentum increasingly evident, bullish enthusiasm in the market continue to return to temperature when the commodity markets are also quietly approaching avalanche Quotes.
Adhere to appropriate loose monetary policy-oriented market for the new year, at least the first quarter of 2010, the main points of domestic macroeconomic policies, coupled with the domestic Chinese New Year season after the arrival of the construction works are expected under speculation, the market is more bullish strengthened steel confidence. And avoiding four, accompanied by fine-tuning the central bank opened a prelude to opening the domestic futures market in less than an hour, the commodity markets staged a full-line intraday plunge in the market marvelous Quotes, apart from panic withdrawal of funds is a great blow to the market popular. Shanghai Lo 1005 contract period of 10 minutes the rapid breakdown below the moving average systems, and once hit limit-down, low exploration to 4389, after intervention in the market, driven by bargain-hunting buying to narrow down the decline. Friday, under the weight of money continues to flee Shanghai and spiral continued the day before yesterday's decline, but the disk was on the 30th line of support, unable to break the day before yesterday low. After panic withdrawal of funds after the market is expected to cost in the rigid support, the steel prices will continue to shock up the main operation, the vicinity of the proposed 4410-4420 more than a single intervention, stops, 4380.
Second, the cost of price rigidity in supporting role
Encounter the cold of winter hit by the impact of domestic coal supply is a frequent emergency, while the current domestic steel mills in the hands of a relatively low inventory of coke and further stimulate the steel mills have increased procurement efforts, the recent shipments of domestic coke market in good condition, the market demand for At the same time, coking enterprises are also operating at full capacity, the plant basically no inventory, shipping and smooth. Over the same period, Shanxi Coking Association in December, following increases of coke guide price of 50 yuan / ton, after its determination to avoid the beginning of January once again raised the price of coke 100-1850 yuan / ton. For several weeks already rising iron ore prices after the New Year holiday, and then climb the peak of history, of which 63.5% of India's mineral powder CIF record 134 U.S. dollars / ton to a new high, the market traded price of 125 U.S. dollars / ton to a high above, compared with April 2009 while the prices doubled. Over the same period the Department of Homeland study shows that strong demand for iron ore in the country under the impetus of the Indian mining raise prices, Australia, "two extension" or the establishment of joint ventures and other kinds of unfavorable factors have led to China's annual iron ore negotiations in 2010 the situation of more difficult. Report is expected in 2010 the international iron ore price increase will be 10% -20%, while domestic iron ore prices will be further pulled up. If the previous interpretation of money-driven Quotes breeding to make steel out of a little city of bubbles, then the latter part of the cost of price rigidity of the supporting role of price adjustment is undoubtedly higher again after a strong support.
Third, the spot market rose across the board
Beginning of this year, weekly domestic steel market rose across the board, but close to the weekend, the domestic futures market sharply for two consecutive days diving, and dragged lower spot prices, reduce or before. The construction category, plate, hot and cold coils and the prices there are different profiles of the higher rate.
Avoid domestic construction steel prices as a whole class up. One east, central and southwest regions of the gains achieved 80-100 yuan / ton, the Guangzhou market, which jumped 50 yuan / ton, north, northeast and northwest due to cold weather, or slightly smaller at 40-70 yuan / ton.
Week of the major domestic market, average price spiral
Varieties of the major domestic market, average price of a week last week Change
20mm 2 Rebar 3921 yuan / ton +87 yuan / ton
6.5mm high speed wire 3976 yuan / ton +109 yuan / ton
Source: Chinese steel prices net
Market as a whole or a larger plate. Including Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, East China market, the average rise of 120 yuan / ton in other areas on average by 40-100 yuan / ton. At present, Shanghai 20mm plate transaction prices in the 3960-4020 mainstream yuan / ton, Guangzhou, 4150 yuan / ton, Tianjin, 3860 yuan / ton. Mysteel is expected next week, the pace of the domestic plate market prices will be slowed.
Further increases in both cold-rolled, in which the whole is greater than hot-rolled or cold-rolled. Avoid the domestic major markets, an average of 3.0mm hot-coil prices in the 4112 yuan / ton, last week was up 72 yuan / ton; 1.0mm cold plate volume 5583 yuan / ton, last week rose 63 yuan / ton. Expectations Recently, Baosteel will continue to increase ex-factory price 200 yuan / tons. Over the same period, steel orders in January are still fairly common phenomenon of discount resources. Mysteel recent market is expected to remain in the disk to find the direction.
Profile average growth of 40 yuan / tons. 23 major markets nationwide average price of: 25 # I-beam is 3848 yuan / ton, last week added 57 yuan / ton, 5 # angle 3760 yuan / ton, last week up 37 yuan / ton, 16 # channel steel the national average price of 3751 yuan / ton, last week gained 49 yuan / ton. Overall, the current profile is slightly lower prices than the construction of steel, still have room for price increases.